-- Fermi's Paradox… The Drake Equation --

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Caution:  long-windedness ahead….

Off-and-on I read a fair amount of popular physics, often running across "Fermi's Paradox" along the way.

I've never quite understood how anyone could take such a paradox seriously (or, indeed, how a competent physicist could've concocted it).  And then I suddenly realized why I have this immediate aversion to Fermi's so-called paradox… it parallels somewhat the "paradox" of the Ivory-bill situation!
For those unfamiliar, here's a synopsis of the Fermi case adapted from Wikipedia:

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'Fermi's paradox is the seeming contradiction between the probability that extraterrestrial civilizations exist in our galaxy and humanity's lack of contact with, or evidence for, them; the basic argument running as follows:

a) There are billions of stars in the galaxy, billions of years older than our Sun.
b) Some, perhaps many, of these old stars have Earth-like planets suitable for evolving intelligent life.
c) Some of these older civilizations would long before now have developed interstellar travel; a technology Earth is only just now investigating.
d) And once interstellar travel is achieved, the galaxy can be colonized, such that by now we should have had contact.

In short, the Earth itself should already have been visited. Yet there's no convincing evidence of such, nor any confirmed signs of intelligent life elsewhere, even in the more than 80 billion+ galaxies of the known universe. Thus, Fermi's question, 'Where is everybody?'

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Or, in a different context, 'Where are those dang Ivory-bills?'

Fermi's Paradox deals with immense distances (and ages) of interstellar space and then makes huge unknowable assumptions about "development" and 'advanced civilizations,' and our own technological capabilities… BUT, perhaps there are 10 extraterrestrials in my living room right now, but due to my limited perception and their superior means they remain invisible to me… seriously, there's no way to know. Fermi's Paradox relies on using our current primitive, myopic knowledge to adjudge the potential of possible lifeforms millions of years ahead of us, about whom we'd likely understand little… 100 years ago what human would've understood the operation of a current-day smartphone?… I can't imagine what all we don't understand of any alien even 10,000 years ahead of us, let alone a million years ahead (...or, as others believe, perhaps every civilization much older than us, has already killed themselves off, as some theorize all advanced civilizations do). The whole matter is a preposterous thought exercise, fraught with pitfalls.

Similarly, at the other extreme, is the Drake Equation, which seems equally ridiculous -- Drake's Equation purports that there are almost certainly 1000s of other intelligent civilizations (in the Milky Way galaxy alone) based on values plugged into a certain contrived equation (though BTW, I don't object so much to the equation itself, but just to the idea that we can accurately determine valid, meaningful numbers to plug into it).

Both Fermi's Paradox and the Drake Equation are the sorts of things one could expect sophomore physics majors to argue over after a Friday night of late beer-imbibing… that professional physicists seriously discuss them boggles my mind. Both are too simplistic, and too chockfull of things unknown.

Anyway, the point is, this situation nicely parallels the Ivory-bill debate in some ways:

In the IBWO case we are dealing, not with vast distances of interstellar space, but great swathes of remote, barely-penetrable earthly groundspace, with beings that, if they exist, are few and far between, and easily missed etc. etc. (you've heard it all before) -- it is not so paradoxical that IBWOs should be exceedingly hard to find, hard to photograph, and hard to document at a level of certainty, anymore than finding alien life, even after decades of high-tech searching, should be easy.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, analogous to Drake's Equation, there is no amount of math or statistics one can slap onto Ivory-bill data (such as it is), that will be tight enough, conclusive enough, to say, "Ivory-bills exist" -- at this point ONLY direct, clear, well-documented, unarguable (and preferably repeatable), photographic evidence of living Ivory-bills will accomplish that… otherwise, the unknowns, the variables, the disputed assumptions and subjective elements whenever "analysis" is required, are too many. I don't make the rules, am just reporting how they seem to have evolved. We need evidence that EVERYbody agrees on, not evidence that requires extensive analysis.

[As a sidenote, there is BTW, one paradox that DOES concern me: it's one thing for humans to have difficulty encountering IBWOs, it's another for non-thinking, non-tiring, 24-hour-working cameras to fail to encounter the bird. Despite 1000's of hours of automatic, remote camera-recording (literally millions of picture frames) from habitat, cavities, and foraging sites that appeared favorable, we have utterly failed, over years, to detect a SINGLE Ivory-billed Woodpecker -- even though these birds must, to exist at all, regularly forage, roost, fly about, breed, etc.  This is the single most devastating result of the entire USFWS/Cornell search -- having said that, I'll quickly add that the cameras (which often malfunctioned, BTW) were used in relatively few areas -- compared to all the suitable habitat available.  Still, cameras were placed where, following much study, the best chance of capturing an Ivory-bill on tape was anticipated -- either Ivory-bills were not there, despite prior alleged evidence that they were, or we humans are bumblingly, mind-blowingly incompetent at ever understanding/predicting this species' behavior (personally, I'm voting for the gross friggin' human incompetence option, but I could be wrong, maybe they aren't there)].

Anyway (getting back on track), "FAV" asks in a prior comment what I think the bird is in Mike Collins' "flyunder" video. The problem with all of Mike's videos (and the "flyunder" clip is one of the more intriguing ones) is simply that the quality is too low. [Mike's own analysis of the "flyunder" clip is here, with the key footage and discussion beginning around the 3:50 mark.]  Mike, FAV, some others think they can draw empirical, analytical conclusions from such graininess; others don't believe the precision required is possible. Strong skeptics would put it simply as, "Garbage in, garbage out." I wouldn't go that far… you can definitely tease information out of garbage, but it tends, of necessity, to be limited and speculative, especially when human subjectivity enters the mix.
So I don't feel as confident about the precise size, features, or even speed of the "flyunder" bird as FAV does.  Even if the white appearance (or is it gray) of the dorsal wing, for example, is real (not some sort of artifact) it is too extensive for an Ivory-bill, so glare or photographic 'bleed' must be involved, but if bleed is involved than how much; 10%, 70%? I don't know all the specifics of the sunlight that day, or angles, or atmospheric conditions, or all the camera specifications, that may have affected filming or the look of a distant fast-moving object. As Donald Rumsfield :-( would say, I don't even know all the things/variables that I don't know. Maybe Mike's analysis is spot-on, but, for plenty of reasons, most folks aren't persuaded.
FAV asks which of 10000 species that bird could alternatively be… I WISH I could glean enough indisputable detail to make a good guess. But if my choices are, it's either an Ivory-bill, or it's one of 9999 other species, including possibly a leucistic individual, then I'm not willing to stake my choice on the former, based on this degree of detail. It's too easy, as optical illusions repeatedly demonstrate (and Sibley of course states), to fool ourselves. (...I happen to think the bird in the Luneau video is most likely an Ivory-bill, but again, based on that clip's poor quality, I'm unwilling to assert with certainty, it's even a woodpecker.)

We all know where Mike stands on his evidence… if he wants it to gain any more traction at this late point he needs to have a reputable but independent party, who hasn't already committed themselves in the IBWO debate, analyze the film clips and reach the same conclusions he has (and publish or post it somewhere)... No one in the broader birding community will assume that I or Mike or FAV are objective or impartial parties at this point on IBWO matters. Serious evidence needs to be looked at by other detached, but competent, third parties, whenever possible; even Cornell and USFWS are largely viewed as tainted in this arena, by now.

Like me, I imagine Cornell continues to receive an ongoing trickle of Ivory-bill "sightings" that are so weak (and sometimes comical) that there is no point in publicizing them and adding to the ridicule that already abounds. Similarly, even if say, Bobby Harrison has had 10 more sightings by now, I suspect he knows he'd be foolhardy to announce it publicly, without photographic evidence, accompanying.
So, I love Mike and FAV's passion and persistence, but they don't seem to understand that we're well past the time when even interesting, tantalizing, intriguing, but ultimately fuzzy evidence requiring interpretation, gets us very far. Collecting, analyzing and discussing grainy evidence is fine, but asserting conclusive results from it, and dissing those with different interpretations, won't fly in today's atmosphere. When/if the species is definitively, conclusively documented, there will be plenty of time for dissing! ;-)
Anyway, while skeptics argue from the Fermi perspective, FAV and Mike argue from the Drake perspective… and the nice thing for me about having them around, is that they make me seem like a moderate!

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-- Flights... of Fancy --

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For what it's worth, just some videos I've lumped together (essentially, meaning I've had a wee bit too much free time on my hands this week...):


The famous Rhein video of an Imperial Woodpecker (Mexico) showing it taking flight around the 1:12 and 1:20 timepoints:




A couple of clips showing a Pileated Woodpecker in flight:





 
And a couple of clips of Pintails in flight (the species often historically compared to an Ivory-bill in flight):





I don't know all the specifications of these clips in terms of film speed or any de-interlacing, so wouldn't read too much into the perceived speed of the flights... but am more interested simply in the style or giss of the flight patterns (wingbeat speed, as a topic, is actually covered more fully in this old Bill Pulliam post: http://bbill.blogspot.com/2011/11/woodpecker-wingbeats-revisited.html).

The Luneau Arkansas video, by the way, is here:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/suppl/2005/06/02/1114103.DC1/1114103S1.mov

and a couple of Mike Collins' Pearl videos as well, here:

http://ftp.aip.org/epaps/journ_acoust_soc/E-JASMAN-129-024103/jasa_movie5.mp4
http://ftp.aip.org/epaps/journ_acoust_soc/E-JASMAN-129-024103/jasa_movie6.mp4

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-- Tidbits --

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1) A Mississippi journalist voices support for Mike Collins here:

http://www.sunherald.com/2014/04/12/5491527/legends-of-honey-island-swamp.html?sp=/99/228/263/490/

2) Occasionally, my Ivory-bill feeds bring in something I don't even know what to think of… the below page contains a couple of oddball quotes from a "Caleb Nelson" --  at first I assumed they were historical in nature, but turns out Caleb Nelson currently teaches at the UVA School of Law (perhaps the whole page is strictly intended as humor?); in any event, Virginia is beyond the historical range for the IBWO:

http://www.lawweekly.org/?module=displaystory&story_id=4107&edition_id=248&format=html

3) Someone emailed me recently asking how many searchers were employed in the official USFWS search throughout the Southeast, and I don't have any figure for that (there were also a lot of volunteers and independents who only worked short stints). I quickly scanned through the final FWS report and what seemed clear was that only Arkansas, Florida, and South Carolina really had very many active searchers (and even then not enough to cover all the habitat of interest). Mississippi, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee, and perhaps even Texas, had remarkably few searchers (although La. and Tx. have been covered a lot in the past). But if anyone wants to put more exact figures on it feel free to.

4) Finally, I've seen some pretty major tree work done by Pileateds in the past, but still found this recent addition to YouTube impressive:



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-- Memory Lane --

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First, "ChiricahuaBob" has added a couple more entries to those cited in the prior post, about further areas in Florida worth exploration:

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=6285&postcount=272

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=6286&postcount=273

A quick note that in the second post C-Bob refers to "the Green Swamp in NC FL," and though it's clear from the post he's referring to an area in NorthCentral FL., just to clarify, I'll note that there is likewise a Green Swamp ("Wilderness Preserve") in southeast North Carolina (NC) that has also had IBWO rumors over the years (…maybe Bob should check it out!). BTW (and I hesitate to even mention this), the FL. Green Swamp is one of the areas the infamous "Magic Bill Smith" early-on made IBWO claims for.

Speaking of Magic Bill, I had occasion recently to go back and re-read some of the discussion from the old, hot-and-heavy international BirdForum thread on Ivory-billed Woodpecker updates (I don't know, is that still the longest thread they've EVER had!?)… anyway, quite a trip down memory lane, and a cast of characters… an interesting way to jiggle the ol' memories a bit. It starts here (but takes a little while to really get going):

http://www.birdforum.net/showthread.php?t=33968

You can almost click randomly anywhere in the middle of the 353 564 pages and find something entertaining (and in my case I always find something I'd forgotten about!).

More recent, but still re-hash, is the below brief interview clip with David Sibley, from another site. In it he responds to what I suspect is one of his least favorite questions… what to say about the Ivory-billed Woodpecker:



David is one of the most congenial, soft-spoken, skilled and insightful field birders in the country, and I suspect he is restraining himself mightily here from saying what he actually thinks ;-) (i.e. that the IBWO saga was a wild goose chase and an incredible waste of time, energy, and conservation dollars). At any rate, David remains one of the most respected birders/naturalists around (who's opinion carries tremendous weight in the birding community) so please keep any comments here as civil as David is.

With that said, however, I'll repeat the story I've told previously:

Around the year 2000, after the David Kulivan Louisiana IBWO sighting I was in line at a book signing for Sibley when I reached the table and quickly asked him what he thought of Kulivan's story and the chances of Ivory-bills still being around. Without missing a beat, he answered that he thought it was close to impossible… that with SO MANY birdwatchers around these days and the IBWO being such a LARGE bird, there was almost no likelihood it could have gone undetected for so long. With a line of fans behind me, I didn't have time to argue the points, but it made me aware that David's mind was already largely made up (years before the Arkansas story came along) that the Ivory-bill was extinct, though his reasons seemed simplistic… big birds that spend most of their time either inside cavities, or high in tree canopies in remote dense forests, can fairly easily evade human encounter. And despite the great growth in birdwatching as a hobby the actual number of experienced birders who spend any significant time in IBWO-like habitat remains very small. So at that time, the species' possible survival, seemed well within the possibility realm to me. Today, after larger-scale, longer-term, and better organized searches it's tougher to argue the points, but still the immensity of difficult habitat, requirement for a clear photo or video, and ongoing smattering of possible credible encounters, do keep hope alive.
IBWO sighters, without a photograph, will always be accused of seeing what they want to see, but the skeptics' default position of incredulity is similarly a very predisposing position… as it was 70+ years ago when no one believed Mason Spencer's claim that he saw Ivory-billed Woodpeckers… until, that is, he shot one.
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-- Past and Present --

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Nothing newsworthy, but a recently uploaded 6-minute YouTube piece, with some nice clips, briefly summarizes the IBWO Arkansas story:


 
And in case you don't follow the IBWO Researchers' Forum, but are interested in Florida searches, these posts briefly report on some recent searching in central Florida:

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=6282&postcount=269

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=6283&postcount=270

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=6284&postcount=271
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-- A Voice From the Past --

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Most emails I get these days are fairly lame claims of Ivory-bill sightings, or else simple questions; occasionally I get some sort of story from someone's past which is a bit more interesting, but also lacking in details and/or credibility… but today I received an unexpected treat of sorts from someone who was actually there 70 years ago to see an Ivory-billed Woodpecker in the Singer Tract (some writers claimed, when Nancy Tanner died, that she was the last living person to definitively have seen an Ivory-bill in the U.S.… but apparently NOT). So this is sorta coool!! (even if it adds nothing to current-day discussion).

Painter Donald Eckelberry was famous for sketching/painting a lone IBWO in the Singer Tract in 1944, that some take as the very last legitimate sighting in the U.S.  One time, several years ago, when I mentioned Eckelberry's experience on the blog, a few commenters actually took issue that he more likely saw a Pileated and faked the eventual painting(!)… anyway, today I received an email from one of the then-young boys who lived in the local John's Bayou log camp from 1943 to 1949, and was with Eckelberry on that fateful day, who'd stumbled upon that blogpost and felt compelled to respond. I post his reply here for sheer historical interest:

"I am the Bobby Fought [Faught] that was with my brother Billy when Don Eckelberry sketched the Ivory-bill near the Sharkey Road log camp in Madison Parish in 1944. I happened to be looking through the internet at the hoop-lah caused by the recent 'sightings' and can understand why someone on your blog questioned the validity of Don Eckelberry's sketch.

"Don did in fact see and sketch an Ivory-bill that day. I may now be an old man, however, I still remember my time in the log camp like it was yesterday. Our mother had recently died in Tallulah and dad was transferred from the Chicago Mill switch engine to one of the log camp's Heislers. The two oldest children, Billy and I, were old enough to go with him. I loved the woods and was sorry to see them cut down, but never thought in my wildest dreams they would be turned into soy bean fields. If I had been older and more experienced, I would have realized when the Corps of Engineers dredged out and ruined the scenic beauty and good fishing in the Tensas River, changes were under way. I roamed the Alligator Bayou area hunting and fishing south of the camp pretty openly; but was wary about hunting at all in the Singer Preserve on the north side of Sharkey Road. Mr Jesse Laird the game warden, kept a close watch there. I did explore the woods on the north side of Shakley Road, sometimes along Johns Bayou and crossed it when I went to Little Bear Lake deep in the woods, to fish. I found wild hogs and wolves were plentiful on Johns Bayou. For that reason, I always carried my little .22 rifle, but kept a low profile because of Mr. Laird.
"Any knowledge about the local Ivory-bills didn't come until we met Don Eckelberry and Mr Jessee Laird on the Johns Bayou Bridge, and were told we could go with him. The bottom line: My brother and I did go with Don, and Don did sketch the Johns Bayou Ivory- bill."  

Thanks so much for writing, Mr. Faught. I truly enjoyed hearing from you. [Mr. Faught also mentioned having been given a photo of the Cuban Ivory-bill back in those days, and said he would send that along if he could find it amongst his papers.]

And below, once again, the wonderful description Eckelberry gave of that fleeting moment in time, in April, in the Louisiana swamp, 70 years past:

"She came trumpeting in to the roost, her big wings cleaving the air in strong, direct flight, and she alighted with one magnificent upward swoop. Looking about wildly with her hysterical pale eyes, tossing her head from side to side, her black crest erect to the point of leaning forward, she hitched up the tree at a gallop, trumpeting all the way. Near the top she became suddenly quiet and began preening herself. With a few disordered feathers properly and vigorously rearranged, she gave her distinctive double rap, the second blow following so closely the first that it was almost like an echo -- an astonishingly loud, hollow, drumlike Bam-bam! Then she hitched down the tree and sidled around to the roost hole, looked in, looked around, hitched down beneath the entrance, double-rapped, and went in."

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Florida etc.

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(via Eric Gaba/WikimediaCommons)

We're into IBWO breeding season and a handful of folks are doing a week+ long search of some central Florida locales starting next week. Coincidentally, a poster at IBWO Researchers Forum chose now to mention an IBWO encounter in the Choctawhatchee (which he continues to visit) 2 years back:

http://www.ibwo.net/forum/showpost.php?p=6261&postcount=265

Where is Tyler Hicks when we need him? ;-) ...Actually, last time I checked, Tyler's interests seemed turned more toward butterflies than birds, and oddly (disappointingly?) his home page barely makes mention of his Ivory-bill work/claims: http://thingswithwings.org/index.html

Anyway, Florida certainly remains a key state for searching along with Louisiana (and I still think Mississippi remains under-searched). Occasionally still get updates (but no success) from folks looking in Texas, and even Georgia and Alabama; but oddly, haven't heard anything for quite sometime from the Arkansas Big Woods, where this all started, or South Carolina's Congaree, which many (not me, but others) deemed the best remaining IBWO habitat. I assume that there are indeed individuals continuing to visit those areas in search of IBWO… you don't need to report anything positive, but if any individuals can confirm time/effort/interest at least still being expended in those areas would love to hear of it.
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-- 10 Years and Counting --

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8+ minute clip from George Butler's 2007 documentary film "The Lord God Bird" here:

http://vimeo.com/45317469 
h/t to Tim Gallagher for pointing to this (in a tweet) -- Tim also nostalgically recalled the same 10-year anniversary moments on his blog recently: 

http://imperial-dreams.blogspot.com/2014/02/ten-years-after.html

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-- Persistence, Paradigm Shifts??? and whatever... --

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This month represents the 10th anniversary of the original IBWO sightings in Arkansas. Hard to believe! (…that it's been 10 years, not the sightings ;-) Nonetheless, for a lot of different reasons, a few of us persist in hope for the Ivory-bill. 

Mike Collins not only has broadcast his views on YouTube, but returned to the Pearl In February for some searching, and says he'll be back (from Virginia where he now lives/works) in March or April for another spell. Thanks also to the few independent folks who continue to send me occasional updates on the searching they find time for in various areas, even if nothing terribly promising has resulted therefrom. And over at the Ivory-bill Researchers Forum, posters keep the faith as well…:

The general paradigm for Ivory-bill searches in the past has been to go to an area where IBWO sightings are reported, especially where interesting sounds, foraging-sign and/or cavities are found, and have human observers search the area, as well as possibly installing remote automatic cameras… i.e. go where the birds might be and have a look/see. Seems logical… but it has failed pretty dismally (at least to obtain the level of documentation now required)… so some folks over at Ivory-bill Researchers Forum are proposing a different, more proactive approach: attract the species to where you want it to be... For anyone who hasn't followed the discussion there, the basic premise is that Ivory-bills may rely on olfaction for finding the beetles and other food sources they prefer, and if one could duplicate those creature-scents artificially and apply it to an area (obviously within suitable IBWO habitat) perhaps IBWOs would appear. A university professor from Caifornia who is expert in avian olfaction is intrigued enough by the proposal to think it worth pursuing. Fleshing out all the necessary details could take awhile… but interesting that after all this time possibly new approaches are yet being formulated (at least I don't recall such an approach being seriously broached before).

Also worth noting, that through the Freedom of Information Act, "Houston" over at IBWO Forum obtained the summary report of helicopter searches over parts of Louisiana (Atchafalaya and Pearl) back in 2008-9. Nothing much of note in it, but why this (and other summaries) have not been released long before now is beyond me… perhaps they're holding back such material for inclusion in a final summary report to be issued around 2081... when all the principals involved are deceased and don't have to defend it. 8-\

Anyway, the Ivory-bill saga is nothing if not bizarre, so I'll close out with yet another of those bizarre elements, for your entertainment -- a recent letter-to-the-editor of an Indiana newspaper (yes, Brazil, Indiana) from someone who appears to be sincere, but is almost certainly hopelessly mistaken… or, just a teller-of-tall-tales:

http://www.thebraziltimes.com/story/2052362.html

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-- Ivory-bill Materials For Sale --

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Several of you may be familiar with birder Jim Williams, long-time bird/nature writer/columnist in Minnesota, with long-held interest in the Ivory-bill. He contacted me wishing to get the word out that he is selling much of his personal collection of Ivory-bill-related materials: books, articles, letters, private communications etc.; and he'd like to sell it all as a "package" (price not mentioned). Here is his email for contact:  woodduck38@gmail.com

Below, I'm posting the list of materials he has sent along, many of which will be quite familiar to Ivory-bill enthusiasts, and others may be more one-of-a-kind items. Please contact Jim via email if you have questions/interest:

Books:

The Grail Bird, Tim Gallagher, Houghton Mifflin, 2005, 1st edition

The Race to Save the Lord God Bird, Phillip Hoose, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2004, 1st edition, mint condition.

Ivory-bill Hunters, Geoffery E. Hill, Oxford University Press, 2007, 1st edition, mint condition.

In Search of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, Jerome A. Jackson, Smithsonian Books, 2004, 1st edition, mint condition.

Stalking the Ghost Bird, Michael K. Steinberg, Louisiana State University Press, 2008, 1st edition, mint condition.

Research, diaries, letters, articles, etc.:

The Ivory-billed Woodpecker, Research Report No. 1 of the National Audubon Society, James T. Tanner, published by the National Audubon Society, October 1942. First edition, 107 pages, 8x10.5 inches, soft cover, fine condition

Personal letter from Willie Aschenbrenner, Rosholt, Wisconsin, 2008, regarding map

Nature Conservancy magazine, Fall 2002, Vol. 52, No. 3, article “Swan Song of the Ivory-bill” by William Stolzenberg, illustrations by David Sibley, photos by Macduff Everton

The New Yorker, May 14, 2001, 2 copies of article by Jonathan Rosen on hunt for Ivory-billed Woodpecker, historic and personal.

The Clarion Ledger newspaper, June 30, 2000, copy of article by Bruce Reed

Field observation notes by Whitney Eastman (marked “not for publication: For confidential  use by naturalists and ornithologists”): Discovery of Two Ivory-billed Woodpeckers in the Apalachicola River Swamp, Florida, March 3, 1950

Journal article (copy), Whitney Eastman author, for Atlantic Naturalist, Vol. 123, No. 4, Oct-Decc.1958, “Ten Year Search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker”

Personal letter (copy) from Herbert Stoddard Sr. to John Baker, president, National Audubon Society, April 28, 1951. A report on survey of “the sanctuary” in Scott’s Ferry, Florida, 1951.

Project Proposal (2 copies) for 1993 Search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, Martjan Lammertink

Dutch Birding, article October 1992, (copy), “Search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Cuba,” Martjan Lammertink

Personal letter, To the Editor, American Birding Association magazine, (copy), from Suzanne Grill, Pocono Pines, Pennsylvania, regarding 1992 sighting of Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Florida

Bird checklist, Felicianas area of Louisiana, Department of Culture, Recreation and Tourism, Office of State Parks, Louisiana, undated, no Ivory-bill on the list.

Map (copy) Pearl River Wildlife Management Area, Louisiana, circa 1990

Map, West Feliciana, Louisiana

Map, Lafourche Parish, Louisiana

Names and contact information, possible information sources, October 2000

Manuscript (copy), 114-page typescript account by H. Norton Agey and George M. Heinzmann of their searches 1965-1970 for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers. Searches conducted in several states. Includes names of other people who have looked for the bird, plus summary of known sightings.

Manuscript (printed), article written by James J. Williams “Ivory-billed Dreams; Ivory-billed Realty” for American Birding Association magazine article late 1990s.

Article, magazine published by Minnesota Ornithologists’ Society, Minnesota Birding, March-April 2002, “Minnesota’s Ivory-billed Connection: The Whitney Eastman Story,” author Jim Williams. Magazine is intact and in fine condition.

Journal article (copy) Delaware Valley Ornithological Club, circa 1940, regarding 1939 visit to Singer Tract and observation of Ivory-billed Woodpecker as found by James Tanner.

Personal letter, Alan Brady, Feb. 2002, explaining above journal article.

Birding Magazine, American Birding Association, March-April 2007. Much of the magazine is devoted to several articles discussing various history of searches for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Very good condition.

Manuscript (copy) Historical Distribution and Habitat in Florida (of Ivory-billed Woodpecker) by Dr. Karl Miller, Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Conversation Commission, Gainesville, Florida. Date and intended publication source unknown. Basically, this is a long list of “possible encounters with Ivory-billed Woodpeckers from 1859 to 1995,” with extensive citations.

Manuscript (copy) of journal article by Jan M. Swart, Nov. 2, 2006, publication unknown.

New York Times Magazine, May 7, 2006, “13 Ways of Looking for an Ivory-billed Woodpecker” by Jack Hitt. Good condition.

Two copies of US Fish and Wildlife brochure describing the bird and the searches. This was issued after the Arkansas sightings.

Also included, a small printed handout from Mexico illustrating and asking people to be on the watch for “el carintero real” (Imperial Woodpecker). The bird is shown in color. Very cool. Mint.
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(...Someone please buy this stuff, because I've already forewarned Jim that most assuredly if he disposes of his collection, the species will no doubt be found and documented a month later and he'll be left punching himself silly! ;-)

-- Those Kenting Blue Jays --

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The circumstance of Blue Jays doing expertly-rendered Ivory-bill 'kent' calls has long been an issue for IBWO searchers. There is no doubt that Blue Jays, well-known "mimics," utter a near perfect copy (to the human ear) of the Ivory-bill's signature sound. Why or how that arose is more a matter of debate, but anyway, I was amused to see a recent exchange on the Texas birding listserv... 
After a poster made note of a mockingbird imitating a blackbird's sound, Fred Collins chimed in with,

"And then there was the Blue Jay doing a perfect imitation of an Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Nacogdoches, TX in 2007. When and where did he learn that!"

To which another poster responded:

"Referring to Fred's Blue Jay doing Ivory-billed Woodpecker calls in 2007 the Blue Jays at Cache River in AR in winter of 2006 made perfect IBWO calls!! A call passed down generations that became a regular call or…"

Rarely, but occasionally, I've heard/watched Blue Jays give clear "kent" calls in my own area, where IBWOs were never known to exist, and it is a bit spooky!
Cornell attempted to address the issue of Blue Jay calls years ago, though I'm not sure much was ever resolved (though on spectrographic analysis they seem to feel they could differentiate the calls):

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/multimedia/sounds/listening/bjkent

I suspect we will never know why, how often, or under what circumstances, Blue Jays voice the calls, nor how much the frequency varies (if at all) by area of the country.

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-- Of Tragedies and Centennials --

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"Martha" from Wikipedia

While hope for the Ivory-bill seems to hang by a thread, hope for another species is gone. This is the centennial year for the official extinction of the Passenger Pigeon, with the death of "Martha" in captivity in 1914. "Project Passenger Pigeon" hopes to tell the story of (and lessons from) the Passenger Pigeon saga to all who will listen this year. Their website here:

http://passengerpigeon.org/

One of the projects they're connected with is a documentary film, "From Billions to None" hoping for release later this year:

http://www.e-int.com/billionstonone/helpfinish.html

And today on NPR's "Diane Rehm Show" writer Joel Greenberg, author of "A Feathered River Across the Sky," told the Passenger Pigeon's incredible and sad story to a national audience. If you missed it, worth a listen (1 hour):

http://thedianerehmshow.org/audio-player?nid=18719

The demise of "Martha," at the time in the Cincinnati Zoo, means we at least have a marker by which to celebrate a centennial for this extraordinary species... No one currently knows when/if? the last Ivory-bill died.
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-- Jerry Jackson Retires --

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Well, this is sort of big news to start off the year (though certainly not unexpected):

http://tinyurl.com/lbry7wh

Dr. Jerome Jackson is retiring. Dr. Jackson has been one of my heroes for the last 30+ years, both in ornithology more generally as well as in the IBWO story more specifically -- and I realize a number of Ivorybill enthusiasts have issues with Dr. Jackson (nor have I agreed with everything he's written). But pretty much the only reason a Gene Sparling, or a Tim Gallagher, or Cornell Lab of Ornithology could step forth in 2005 and claim to have found an Ivory-billed Woodpecker... and not be laughed at... was because of the earlier work done by Jackson. His work is renowned on many fronts, as is his reputation as a teacher of budding naturalists.

On those very rare occasions over the past several years when something IBWO-related crossed my desk that I wanted to hear the opinion of others higher-up about, Jerry Jackson was at the top of my list of the views I wanted to hear.

Julie Zickefoose, in her 1999 essay (well before all the Arkansas excitement) for Bird Watcher's Digest wrote:

"Jerry Jackson, by virtue of his unique combination of ornithological expertise, woodsman's smarts, and unalloyed faith, refuses to close the book on the ivory-billed woodpecker. Alone among all those I've spoken with, he continues to search. He truly believes that, somewhere on the planet, ivorybills still hitch and rap and toss their fluffy topknots, pound their great shining bills into bark, fly in long straight lines over a sea of treetops. As much as I would like to see an ivory-billed woodpecker, I wish more that Jerry would see one."

And of course, I too wish, that in retirement, just maybe, perhaps, possibly, the-gods-be-willing and the stars aligning just so, Jerry will find the time to at long-last document the most elusive quarry of his career, because after-all, as his wife intones, "he's kind of driven." ;-)

In any event, sincerely Happy Retirement Dr. Jackson!

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-- Year End --

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I probably shouldn't let any year go by without re-playing Sufjan Stevens haunting tribute to the Ivory-bill:



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-- "interesting followup"... --

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Cornell's John Fitzpatrick is in a new ~11 min. audio interview, recounting the Ivory-bill story. Nothing new in it, until the 9-minute point when he mentions what he terms an "interesting followup" occurring in the winter of 2008-9 when a "colleague" recorded a lengthy (but "inconclusive") set of kent-like sounds about "every 10-15 seconds" from treetops -- I think it's implied that this was in the Big Woods (Arkansas), though I'm not at all positive about that:

http://tinyurl.com/ma4dfos
(click on the arrowhead to start the audio)


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-- Mike Collins Summarizes His Work --

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Mike Collins has produced a set of YouTube videos recapitulating his case for Ivory-bills in the Pearl River (LA.) region, based on his work there over ~8 years. There are a total of 10 videos, generally 10-15 mins. each, beginning with this one (the other clips accessible by clicking on the "14 videos" link beside Mike's name):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-VJpxO5_D8

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-- More of Same --

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Earlier this year I cited the abstract to the final official report on the 2006-8 search for the Ivory-bill in South Carolina (from Matthew Moskwik et.al., and focused especially on the Congaree), and now I see the entire report is available for free on the Web:

http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/2013/ja_2013_moskwik_001.pdf

A nice read... that sounds all-too familiar.
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-- Georgia's Altamaha... --

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Just passing this along, in the event anyone might be interested…

A reader ("Tony") from McDonough, Georgia, has the birding 'bug,' in particular the IBWO 'bug,' and is very interested in exploring (starting as early as October) parts of the lower Altamaha River habitat "from Big Hammock to I-95," including setting up some automatic recorders. He's looking for anyone who would be interested in joining/assisting in such a search.

If there are any takers, especially from the area, send me your name and email address (or other contact info) and I'll pass them along to the emailer (I expect he'll be searching through wintertime, not just in October). Or, if you have any particular ideas/suggestions/contacts for searches along the Altamaha send those to me for passing along to Tony.

Though Georgia never seemed to receive extensive attention during the Cornell/USFWS search, the Altamaha has some interesting (though distant) history with the IBWO, and secondary growth along much of it should be quite good. And just to stir a little additional interest, here's a prior post I did on Georgia awhile back:

http://ivorybills.blogspot.com/2012/02/and-back-to-georgia.html
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