Thursday, November 17, 2005

-- One More Person's Viewpoint --

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Once again Birdchick Blog has another fun/interesting post today, this time on the recent Rio Grande Valley Birding Festival
(you may want to read the whole thing), but including this noteworthy passage on David Luneau's video, for what it's worth:
"Tim Gallagher gave a presentation and signing at the RGV Fest too. Watching his footage of the Luneau video was a very different experience than having watched it on the internet or tv news where it's blown up to grainy proportions. Having watched it on a large screen at regular speed, it makes much more sense as to why this is an ivory-billed woodpecker and not an albinistic pileated. Whether or not you believe the bird in the footage is an ivory-bill, I will tell you this, it is for sure not a pileated. It doesn't have the flight pattern a pileated does -- this isn't someone speaking from behind a computer, this is someone who has considered a pileated a favorite bird since age seven and has watched it for hours in the field. If anything you could argue that the footage is an albinistic wood duck from the way the wings flap and the speed that the bird in question leaves the tree--it doesn't have the flight pattern of a woodpecker at all. What keeps it from being a wood duck is that you can see the bird clinging to the side of a tree before it takes off."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

-- for the umpteenth time --

------------------------------------------------------------------
With the lull in the news, and at the risk of beating a dead palomino, I'll just reiterate a few major points (for the umpteenth time):

1) The Big Woods area of AR. is about the size of the state of Rhode Island -- nothing too unusual about not being able to find a bird in a (mostly wooded) area that vast (depends how many there are) -- heck, half the time I can't find my car in the mall parking lot! And in the 80 years prior to Pearl River there were never any truly large-scale, organized, meaningful, well-funded searches for the bird; NONE.

2) ...nor anything whatsoever unusual about failure to capture the bird on film. Without finding an active roost or nest hole this will remain difficult at best (although the sheer number of searchers running around with cameras/video of course increases the chances of at least more fuzzy shots).

3) at least 16 people claim to have seen/identified the bird -- all of whom know about, and are experienced viewing Pileated Woodpeckers. Furthermore, most of the sightings occurred out in the open, unlike some past sightings that have involved interference from leaves or tree limbs. (...As I've said before, if the sighters' names included "Sibley," "Kaufman," "Dunne," "Ehrlich,", etc. we wouldn't even be having this debate, no matter how brief the glimpses, because rightly or wrongly, those who write books or are mass media "names" are automatically granted credibility not afforded to others.) Numerous bird identifications, including those used in official counts, are based on equally brief looks -- only people's biasing, preconceived notions of Ivory-bill extinction cause them to challenge all such sightings.

4) For several sighters SIZE was one of the very first, most striking features of the bird in question -- this is significant since other field marks can be missed with a bird in flight (although the key trailing white wing edge, the one fieldmark people are incessantly told to focus on, was reported by most sighters).

5) Credible reports of Ivory-bills have been made every decade since the 40's (indeed, since at least the 20's). It is the pronouncement of "60 years without being seen" that is, and always has been, a completely unproven, unwarranted claim, that again biases people ahead of time to (against) any new reports.
----------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

...Ti-i-i-ime Out...

--------------------------------------------------------
Okay, I bill this blog as "All Ivory-bills, All the time," but for the first time ever am going momentarily OFF-topic to refer folks to a post I thought too wonderful not to pass along, on another marvelous bird, the California Condor -- this post from 'birdchick' today (Tues., Nov 15), concerns an injured Ca. Condor in rehab in Minnesota of all places, and includes some great photos along with the storyline... Enjoy!

http://www.birdchick.com/2005/11/california-condor-at-raptor-center.html
--------------------------------------------------------

-- Some of The Folks Involved --

-----------------------------------------------------------
If you haven't already seen it, there are short blurbs/bios of people involved in the Arkansas search (with nice quotes) available at:

http://www.nature.org/ivorybill/team/

(...and geee, despite what skeptics might have you thinking, most of these folks even have credentials, college degrees, experience, and appear non-hallucinatory!!)
-----------------------------------------------------------

-- Arkansas Carrying Capacities --

-------------------------------------------------------------
A couple of posts back I made mention of forest 'dead timber densities' and IBWO 'carrying capacities;' if you want to see more data on such factors (densities of large-diameter trees, snags, and dead wood)
in the pertinent Arkansas areas, check out the following site that provides some graphic habitat inventory maps based on recent research:

http://www.lmvjv.org/IBWO_habitat_inventory_&_assessment.htm
--------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 14, 2005

-- Stay Tuned --

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
This short note from David Luneau's website today:
" 'NOVA ScienceNow' will be featuring the IBWO as one of the TOP 10 science stories of 2005 in a program that will run sometime in January. Keep an eye on your local PBS listings."

...for any birding story, even including re-discovery of the Ivory-bill, to make a top 10 list of all possible science stories for a given year is pretty remarkable!!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 13, 2005

-- Ivory-bill Estimates --

-----------------------------------------------------------------
After the initial announcement of Arkansas Ivory-bills I attempted to estimate how many IBWOs might remain in the entire American Southeast, based on distribution of previous reports, habitat availability, time passed since Tanner's study, possible breeding and death rates, and... intuition. As best I can recall the numbers I arrived at ranged from a low estimate of ~45 birds to a high of possibly ~125. These numbers were based on such imprecise and hard-to-quantify data and assumptions, that I presumed they would be scoffed at as absurdly optimistic.
Now, some folks on a BirdForum thread, using dead timber density and other 'carrying capacity' factors as guides, are throwing out possible Ivory-bill estimates of well over 100 birds for just AR. and LA. alone; thus, I'm a bit more heartened that in the end my figures might just prove to be moderate or even conservative, rather than insanely optimistic.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, November 11, 2005

10 Things I Learned OUTside Kindergarten...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a few things I learned all on my own, when I wasn't in school studying stupid stuff:

1. Birds are pretty smart critters (...and corollary, humans ain't as smart as they invariably think they are).
2. Birds know the outdoors and their own territories a whole lot better than humans do, or ever could.
3. Birds have appendages called "wings" that allow them to move swiftly, on a moment's notice, at will, in any direction, far away, to evade predators or detection.
4. Creatures that get shot at don't much like it, and over time learn to avoid the creatures doing the shooting.
5. Though the woods "are lovely dark and deep," they can also be vast, dense, inhospitable, poorly-accessible, and difficult to traverse without making lots and lots of noise.
6. Living things have a tremendous will/drive to live and reproduce, and adaptive individuals virtually always survive well past the time silly humans think they're all gone.
7. It can be difficult to make generalizations about species because individual members are so variable and dynamic.
8. Extinction is forever, and that's a LONG, LONG time -- one ought be mighty gosh darn positive before ever declarin' it, or you just might look like a fool.
9. The Universe is positively brimming with improbabilities.
10. Children's intuition (before it is extinguished) is right just about as often as grown-up science is.

....just a few late-night thoughts; think it's my naptime now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- More Words From The Past --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
A bit of Jerry Jackson as we head into the weekend -- Back in his 1989 (pre-Pearl River and Big Woods) report to the Government USF&W, after extensive study of Ivory-bill natural history and searching, IBWO expert Dr. Jerome Jackson wrote the following (not all readers will know the specific cases he makes reference to, but you'll understand the gist, and a near identical passage appears in his current book as well):
"Perhaps we can dismiss the photographs that George Lowery presented to the ornithological community. Perhaps we can dismiss the sightings reported by Whitney Eastman. Perhaps we can dismiss the sightings of John Dennis. Perhaps we can explain away the Dennis tape recordings that were analyzed by Hardy. Maybe there is a miniscule chance that the recording made by Reynard isn’t of an Ivory-bill. Perhaps we can dismiss the response to tape recordings that were heard by Robert Manns, Malcolm Hodges, and myself or the birds heard by Fred Sibley and Ted Davis. But the list goes on and on -- right up to the present. If each of these observations has any probability at all of having been real, these probabilities add up. It is unlikely that all of these reports are misidentifications."
Additionally, Jackson concluded the following regarding possible ivory-bill locales:
"...the most likely states in which ivory-bills might still exist are, in order of likelihood: Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. South Carolina, Georgia, and Texas would be next, and Alabama and Arkansas would be behind them."


Hmmm... Arkansas last? After years of study was Jackson just flat-out wrong, or did he have it right and the now sought-after AR. birds are in fact just one of the smaller populations of ivory-bills out there to be discovered???
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 10, 2005

-- Symposium Abstracts' Thoughts --

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just a few thoughts about the Symposium abstracts previously referenced:

The abstracts are interesting, but often only hint at the details that may have been covered in the full presentations. As could be expected many of the abstracts are more indicative of what we DON'T fully know or understand about Ivory-bills than what we do know.

Here is one quote from the abstracts I throw out only to indicate that among principals of the search, unlike the constant armchair debaters over the internet, there is LITTLE doubt what the Luneau video shows:
"Due to technical imperfections, the woodpecker in the Luneau video offers a challenging identification puzzle but comparisons with images of Pileated Woodpecker in flight and a reenactment with models of Ivory-billed Woodpecker and Pileated Woodpecker demonstrate the videoed bird is indeed an Ivory-billed
Woodpecker. "

I am still troubled somewhat by the acoustic data; so far as I can tell there is still no indication that the "kents" recorded in the Big Woods have been compared to the 'toots' of a Red-breasted Nuthatch, the bird Tanner (and I) believe most resembles the Ivory-bill sound (albeit not as loud); only comparisons to the White-breasted cousin are mentioned (this I think is a major lapse if it has not been done). As far as Blue Jay calls go, I see no great problem with the possibility of the taped kent calls emanating from them, since this simply begs the question of why are Blue Jays in the Big Woods apparently producing this call so much more often than they do throughout most of their range. Either this IS a case of mimicry or it is some sort of strange vocal co-evolution in which case one must explain why do Big Woods Blue Jays make the call much more frequently than say Blue Jays in Chicago, Illinois. (Indeed, how many calls do Blue Jays make that are neither part of their normal daily repertoire nor instances of mimicry??? -- does anyone have a clue...)

Finally, I will quote just one abstract below in its entirety, because it so strongly mirrors the conclusions I too have been approaching over the last few years:

"The role of human depredations in the decline of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker"
-- Noel F.R. Snyder
"In virtually all modern accounts, the endangerment of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker has been attributed mainly to (1) extreme foraging specialization, leading to a crucial dependency of individuals on vast areas of pristine woodlands to obtain sufficient food, and (2) the logging of nearly all virgin forests in the species' original range. However, rigorously persuasive evidence for the ivory-bill being an extreme foraging specialist appears to be lacking, and the numerous reports of early abundance of the species across its original range are difficult to reconcile with a dependency of individuals on vast areas of mature forests. Although the ivory-bill did exhibit sparse populations and a frequent close association with remnant virgin forests as it approached extinction, these characteristics may have been due mainly tofactors other than food stress. In particular, direct human depredations may have been more important than habitat modification and food scarcity in producing the species' decline. The loss of certain Florida populations to zealous specimen collecting has long been acknowledged. But in addition, there are other populations for which evidence plausibly suggests extirpation mainly due to subsistence, curiosity, and sport killings. The high vulnerability of the ivory-bill to human depredations was often noted in historical accounts, and no substantial regions are known that were free of such threats. In many regions major ivory-bill declines clearly took place before logging operations were initiated, suggesting that habitat destruction was at most a secondary stress, whatever the primary stress may have been. Logging must surely have greatly lowered the carrying capacity of most woodlands for the species, but not necessarily to the point where food supplies were inadequate to support any ivory-bills. Instead, logging's most significant detrimental role may have been the facilitation of human depredations on remnant populations, especially by providing much improved access to formerly remote regions, a role increasingly recognized as crucial in the current disappearance of vulnerable wildlife species from tropical forests around the world."

-- If 'human depredation' was in fact a MAJOR cause of the IBWO's decline than its end in the 30's would have given the species an extra 20 years to stabilize and hang on while waiting for 2nd growth forest to recover in the 50's; 20 years of crucial 'breathing' time.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-- Symposium Abstracts Available --

--------------------------------------------
Abstracts (14 pages worth) of the presentations from the recent large woodpecker ecology symposium in Brinkley are now available (in pdf form) at:

http://nature.org/ivorybill/current/art15996.html

...may have more to say about them after I've read through them myself.
--------------------------------------------

-- In The Popular Press Again --

----------------------------------
Yesterday's USA Today contained a somewhat textbook-like article on the Ivory-bill :

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/discoveries/2005-11-09-ivory-billed-woodpecker_x.htm
----------------------------------

Wednesday, November 09, 2005

-- Another Look Back: John Dennis --

------------------------------------------------------------------
...some more ivory-bill history to re-live: Ornithologist and writer John Dennis's reports of Ivory-bills in the Big Thicket area of Texas gained him notoriety and then discredit back in the 1960's. Below is part of the memorable account he wrote for Audubon Magazine in Dec. 1967. Others discounted his claims (which were never corroborated) and later he himself admitted to being overly-optimistic in his estimates of Ivory-bill numbers in Texas though he still believed they were present... as many others still do :
"... toward dusk I heard the tin trumpet-like sound that could only come from one source. I had last heard these notes in the swamps of the Chipola River in northwestern Florida in 1951...
Rain and impassable roads delayed my return to the locale until December 8th, when I made another discovery. Not far from where I had heard the call notes I found a living overcup oak with two fresh, squarish holes -- each about four inches in diameter -- penetrating a hollow trunk. Since the pileated woodpecker does not normally make square roost or nest holes or use living oak trees, I had good reason to believe that this was the work of an ivory-bill.
But when I returned two days later my crest of optimism was diminished. I could not even find the oak with the two squarish holes. All morning I took one compass bearing after another near the spot where I thought the roost tree should be. Then toward noon I wandered along the edge of a cypress-filled bayou. I had walked only a few yards when I was almost paralyzed with excitement by a sight that few have seen.
The bird had apparently been feeding near the ground. Effortlessly and almost gliding, it seemed, it rose from its feeding place, disappeared behind some trees, then reappeared for an instant on the trunk of a big dead cypress tree standing in the nearby bayou. Then before I could fully comprehend what I had seen, the bird vanished in the forest.
The wide white border at the rear edge of the upper wing convinced me beyond doubt that this was an ivory-billed woodpecker. A half-hour later I spotted the bird again. This time I saw what looked like a giant red-headed woodpecker perched on a stump, wings outspread in an attitude that suggested a threat display...
...on February 19th I was able to show Armand Yramategui an ivory-bill at almost the same spot. He saw the same features I did -- the the upper wing pattern, the long pointed tail, and the straight rather than undulating flight. He thought his bird had a black crest.
As I continued my search in this area through early winter, I found evidence of only one bird and this, in all probablility, was a female. My early elation gave way to apprehension. Was this the last ivory-bill in Texas? The last one anywhere?...
... looking back on the history of the ivory-bills’ tenuous survival through this century, I was comforted by the fact that the bird has always reappeared after long absences....

As I searched the Neches River valley during the winter of 1967, evidence began to point to a sizable ivory-bill population. Talking with hunters, fishermen, cattle raisers, lumbermen and oil company workers I found a few persons who had unquestionably seen ivory-bills. The details they gave me could not have come from any book. I also talked to the few hardy birdwatchers who, braving the mosquitoes, water moccasins and difficult terrain, had penetrated the swamps...
In February I found evidence of ivory-bills at still a third location. From a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service plane, not only did I spot what was almost certainly an ivory-bill in flight, but the very location had been pinpointed by a woodsman as the place where he had seen one of the birds.
In April, May, and early June, I was again in Texas, this time under the auspices of the Endangered Species Research Station of the Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife. Again my assignment was to search for ivory-bills, to interview people -- and to try to determine just how many birds there were and to locate their territories....
By the end of May, taking into account my own observations and the most trustworthy of those made by others, I made a rough estimate of the ivory-bill population in the Neches Valley. Instead of one forlorn bird, I could speak confidently of between five and ten pairs. This was most encouraging. But uppermost was the question of what could be done at this late date not only to save the ivory-bill from extinction, but to bring its numbers back to a safer level.
The situation is not at all hopeless. I am encouraged, first of all, by the birds’ ability to remain out of sight -- even to the extent of having “disappeared” in Texas for 62 years..."

-- John Dennis, R.I.P. (1916 - 2002)


----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

-- Ivory-bill Habitat Potential --

-----------------------------------------------------------------
In another new BirdForum note, "fangsheath" reported the following:
"Those with an interest in ivory-bills may find this paper of value. It describes forest changes in the Mississippi alluvial valley from the 1930's to the 1990's. Notice that in the early 1930's, when only about 1 million acres of uncut bottomland forest remained, much of it (though certainly not all) in NE La., there were about 13 million acres of regenerating second-growth. By this time many areas that had been clearcut were probably already 30+ years old. Many areas judged to be old-growth in the 1990's remained in private hands."

http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/gtr...042-rudis01.pdf

--- Many of us have never bought the notion that Ivory-bill habitat simply disappeared completely in the 40's (and when necessary, birds can linger in forest 'patches' surprisingly well, if left undisturbed), nor that the birds couldn't easily adapt to second-growth forest. Ivory-bill habitat afterall was home to 100s of avian species (not just the Ivory-bill), almost all of whom are still with us today.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, November 07, 2005

Ivory-bill vs. Pileated Groove Size Study

---------------------------------------------------------------
This quite fascinating post from Steve Holzman appeared today on BirdForum. Steve and Paul Sykes (I assume this is the rather long-time IBWO skeptic 'Paul Sykes'?) have been conducting a study of any perceivable, measureable differences in Pileated and Ivory-bill bark scaling signs (
I've always been a bit skeptical of these possible differences, but this certainly sounds intriguing/hopeful) :

"We presented a poster at the Large Woodpecker Symposium in Brinkley, AR last week. I think after we do the statistics we'll put a paper together. For those unfamilar with the project, we found some grooves on bark-scaled trees in Arkansas that were above 3.8 mm in width. After looking throughout many southeastern states we found similar sign (likely Pileated Woodpecker (PIWO) work) and measured those grooves. We then measured hundreds of bills of both Ivory-billed (IBWO) and PIWO in museum collections. The grooves outside of AR coincided nicely with PIWO bills and the AR grooves coincided nicely with IBWO bills. While you couldn't say a particular tree was scaled by Pileated or IBWO just by looking at it, there does seem to be a groove width difference. Preliminary work suggests that Pileated's can't make a groove larger than 3.5 (and more are below 3.1 mm). This is a work in progress, but it does show some promise in identifying woodpecker species by examination of foraging sign. We also were able to measure the grooves on the inside of IBWO cavities in museum collections (only 4 cavities are in existence as far as we know). These also coincided with the AR grooves."

------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, November 05, 2005

-- A Little More History... --

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

While awaiting for something historical to happen in AR. (or elsewhere) it may be of value to review past historical IBWO information. I particularly like reading Arthur Bent's old accounts of various bird species, and here's just a little of what he had to write about the Ivory-bill back around 1940:

"The large size and striking color pattern, the mystery of its habitat, and the tragedy of its possible extinction combine to make the ivory-billed woodpecker one of peculiar interest to all Americans who have any pride in the natural resources of their country...
The ivorybill is primarily a bird of the great moss-hung southern swamps, where mature timber with its dying branches provides a bounteous food supply of wood-boring larvae, but its habits apparently vary in different parts of its range, for the birds I observed in Florida, although nesting in cypress swamp, did most of their feeding along its borders on recently killed young pines that were infested with beetle larvae. They even got down on the ground like flickers to feed among palmetto roots on a recent burn. In Louisiana, on the other hand, the nesting birds observed confined their activities to a mature forest of oak, sweetgum, and hackberry, and paid little attention to the cypress trees along the lagoons.
At what time the winter groups of ivorybills break up and spring activities commence is rather difficult to state, for there seems to be considerable irregularity to the breeding season. Judged from published records of its nests, the period of greatest activity would seem to be late March and early April... there are a few records of February nesting...
...once a pair has established a territory it seems to cling to that area winter and summer... These territories are doubtless several miles in diameter, but the tendency was for the birds to build up small communities in certain areas until in former years, when their distribution was normal, they were reported as fairly common by observers who happened upon one of these communities. On the other hand, there were perhaps always large areas of similar timber uninhabited by them, so that with equal truth by equally competent observers they were called extremely rare. How much farther they range during the winter than during the nesting season has not yet been worked out, but doubtless the area covered at times is considerably larger, and this accounts for sporadic records of birds in nonbreeding seasons in areas where no nests have been located and where no one has been able to find the birds subsequently.
The family groups apparently keep together until the following nesting season, and Mr. Kuhn has reported seeing groups of from three to five birds even as late as early March. Hoyt (1905) states that 'after the young leave the nest in April they and the parents remain together until the mating season in December.' " (from Life Histories of North American Woodpeckers by Arthur C. Bent)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 03, 2005

-- News Forthcoming or Blackout? --

----------------------------------------------------------------
Ivory-bill enthusiasts have all looked forward to the current resumption of the Cornell search in hopes of more news coming forth. Possibly though we should be prepared for the exact opposite effect: with so many of those most interested in the IBWO likely involved in the search and thus under the auspices of Cornell, they will have much LESS freedom to report information or even speculation than previously (I'm not saying this is necessarily a bad thing but just a fact of the situation). It's conceivable the next few months could be even slower for public news than the last couple months. David Luneau has previously written that he, and possibly others, plan to post updates on the search at The Nature Conservancy site:
http://nature.org/ivorybill
It will be interesting to see just how frequent and informative any such reports are.

Otherwise, there are still many more talks/presentations on the Ivory-bill scheduled around the country so it is worth checking here from time to time for any coming to your area:
http://nature.org/ivorybill/current/art16528.html
---------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

-- Cornell Presentations Available --

------------------------------------------------------
Four presentations from Cornell Ivory-bill researchers given at this year's American Ornithologists' Union's annual conference are available for video download at:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/multimedia/videos/aoupresentation.htm

(need a broadband connection)
------------------------------------------------------