-- Boston Globe --

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New Boston Globe article on the Ivorybill controversy here, with Prof. E.O. Wilson weighing in at very end.

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-- Arkansas News Report --

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Arkansas news summary of Big Woods search for the "iconic bird" here:

http://www.katv.com/news/stories/0208/494759.html?020908
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-- Schrodinger's Cat??? --

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30+ years ago on the first day of a graduate 'statistics-for-researchers' class the professor I had told us he really didn't like teaching these intro courses in statistics to students who were non-mathematics majors. He explained that statistics was a powerful but subtle tool, and that to really grasp and apply statistics correctly required a PhD. in mathematics, if not even a PhD. in statistics. Students taking a couple of semesters of stats, and then applying statistics to their research projects almost invariably misused them, he informed us. Further, he asserted that most of the statistical analyses published in journals was also mis-applied unless it was carried out by a math or statistics specialist.
At the time, the judgment seemed a tad harsh, but over the years I came to appreciate his view, because increasingly, in general, only specialists really, truly have adequate understandings of their particular fields. Narrow specialized knowledge has replaced any breadth of knowledge as the norm in most subject areas. There are no experts on birds, but there may be experts on the fine feather and barbule structure of strigidae species.

And there are no specialists for Ivorybills; folks exist who fully know the literature, but no experts with actual, direct, significant experience with the species. Nor can skeptics get inside the heads of Tyler Hicks, or Rich Guthrie, or Tim Gallagher, or Geoff Hill, or David Kulivan, or a John Dennis, or others who say they saw an Ivorybill, to know for sure just what those folks saw. Skeptics can only proclaim, in an ad hoc manner, 'they're all mistaken' without offering direct evidence of error. And maybe they are all mistaken, each and every one of them, each and every time, in each and every place, under each and every circumstance, for six decades running... or... maybe the skeptics are mistaken (they all seem to gleefully admit they make mistakes), led astray by their perception of the statistics or probabilities involved --- the probability of Ivorybills existing is simply unknown, and for now unknowable.
The question skeptics essentially raise is, 'If an Ivorybill swoops through the forest, but no one gets a photograph, then does it exist???' And the answer they appear satisfied with, is, 'no, it does not.'
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-- Helicopter Searching Recounted --

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New posts at Cornell's Arkansas search log describe some of the helicopter searching (with pics) over the Big Woods which began over a week ago. The flight surveys would've been approaching their conclusion shortly, but with a couple days missed due to weather, I guess they'll be slightly extended. The excitement of the searchers for this methodology is easily sensed, though nothing too compelling reported thus far (as far as IBWO finding).
Some folks believe the aerial surveys represent a last ditch effort on Cornell's part to document Ivorybills in Arkansas, but ground efforts and automatic cameras of course continue in place at least through April/May.

Nothing too noteworthy lately on the separate search log of Cornell's "Mobile Search Team" (different from their Arkansas team). And no recent updates (since a month ago) to Geoff Hill's Auburn page either. Nor anything much (sorry to sound like a broken record) being reported out of Texas or South Carolina.

.....................................................................................................

And in the "now for something totally different " Dept., from elsewhere on the Web, a paragraph I've come across in a few different places:

"I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg.
The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid; aoccdrnig to arscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae.
The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe.
Amzanig huh? and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt! "

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-- Karpovsky/Butler Films --

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Final cut of Alex Karpovsky's independent fictionalized docu-drama about the Arkansas IBWO doings entitled "Woodpecker" (formerly titled, "General Impression of Size and Shape"), will make its debut at an Austin, Texas film festival in March. Also in mid-March, George Butler's documentary "The Lord God Bird" will show again in Washington D.C. with Cornell's Tim Gallagher and Ron Rohrbaugh in attendance as part of "National Geographic Live" offerings, in conjunction with an environmental film festival.

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-- Snyder/Collins Redux --

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Haven't touted it for awhile, so may be worth mentioning for newer readers that Noel Snyder's monograph "An alternative hypothesis for the cause of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker's decline," which argues that hunting/collecting was a greater factor than habitat loss in the decline of the species, is still available here for $25:

http://www.wfvz.org/html/pub_prog.html

Meanwhile, Pearl River searcher Mike Collins will speak at New College in Sarasota, FL., on Thurs., Feb. 28, at 7 pm. about Ivorybills and his own ongoing search efforts.

....and addendum to Sunday's post:

A few folks emailed me asking for the URL to Bill Smith's site --- for now I prefer not to give that out and direct more people to it (anyone wanting it badly enough can locate it through googling of course); if at a future point I think it worthwhile to send people there (for one or another reason) then I'll link to it.
Secondly, a couple of emailers asked about an Ivorybill photo of Bill's they saw referenced elsewhere, but couldn't find anywhere. That particular photo is not on Bill's site (he took it down long ago); I do have a copy of it on file and can send it as an attachment (~200 kb) to anyone really interested, but by itself, it settles nothing and is likely not worth the trouble.

Other avian stuff: PBS's "Nature" broadcasts "A Crash of Two Species" (horseshoe crabs and Red Knots) this coming Sunday (check your local listings). Should be good:

http://www.pbs.org/wnet/nature/crash/index.html

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-- The Bill Smith Tale --

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I'd hoped not to direct any more attention his way, but was compelled this weekend to spend time on the on-again-off-again-on-again Ivorybill chronicles of Florida aquariumist and "magicguy" Bill Smith (of the odd "billismad" URL), so will say a few things for what it's worth to those familiar with his narrative:

I've verified Bill's full name, address, ph. no., birthdate, and other basic info through public sources, so the name "Bill Smith" IS legit despite it's 'John Doe' like quality (for obvious reasons I'll not give out any of these details, so please don't email me for more information than what I state here). And while it is good that certain basic info he's put forth does bear out, obviously many other assertions and certain background info continue to be perplexing and troubling (to say the least) to the credibility of his claims; indeed I've still found no one official who is able to back up any of Bill's purported IBWO activities. [BTW, if you try to access his site, be aware that some in the past complained of trojan adware emanating therefrom; that is not necessarily any fault of Bill's, but just be aware of the possibility --- though most routine protective software probably blocks it.]

I continue to regard the entire affair as a sadly prolonged distraction from the real Ivorybill work being done. BTW, unlike regular publishing, digital self-publishing can be done in short order (sometimes less than a week), so Bill, who first talked of the possibility of a self-published book over two years ago, has the chance to hugely alter my view of things any day now with his publication, as promised, of photos and explanatory text that others can adjudge for authenticity. Any day now... any day now. . . . . . . . .

In other news from the Web, a reader sends in this link to the discovery (and photo) of a new mammal species.

And here ('cuz I love owls), ongoing live webcam of a Great Horned Owl that recently returned to nest for another season on a California university building (coooool!):

http://www.cs.csubak.edu/owlcam/camera.php (of course she's not present at all times, and best to view during daylight hours)

Lastly, for further entertainment, some fine bird photography here:

http://www.birdsbykim.com/
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-- A Little Weekend Reading--

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Some lengthy reading here from Nassim Taleb, bestelling writer/thinker of "Fooled By Randomness" and "The Black Swan"... may... or may not... be off-topic.

....and elsewhere on the Web just something pithy and interesting (and also O.T.) I thought worth passing along here.

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- Fleeting Texas Hope --

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A reader sends in this link (pdf) to John Arvin's ongoing Texas 'IBWO Chronicles' (John's been in charge of the official Texas search effort), describing a 'possible encounter' (glimpse and sound) by John from last year's search near the Trinity River. Once again fleeting and suggestive only. Meanwhile, searching continues this season along the Sabine, Neches, and Trinity River systems of Texas.

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-- Rambling --

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Historically, the most active breeding/nesting period for Ivory-bills has been very irregular, making generalizations difficult. Still, the courting or PRE-nesting period, very generally Feb.-Mar., ought be the time of greatest activity and vocality. One may recall that the entire Arkansas excitement originally began with February sightings of "Elvis." Luckily, this is also a time of bare trees and better visibiity. Thus, hope for detection begins to increase around mid-Feb. Once the birds actually go to nest, they are likely more quiet and secretive, although if nestlings ensue there is the need for increased foraging flights (one may also recall that several of Cornell's other encounters occurred in April) --- moreover, as often noted, the most likely way to fully document the species will be by locating an active nesthole. So, as in prior years, the most interesting part of the search season is yet to unfold... but then, we've been postulating that for 2 years.

In 2005, K. Dean Edwards on the Tennessee birding listserv suggested that as long as researchers were listening to tapes of swamp sounds (for IBWO kents and double-knocks) they might as well additionally listen for the call of Bachman's Warbler, another extremely rare or extinct bird that shared the habitat of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. To some, even the Carolina Parakeet is not completely out-of-the-question as a possible find during a thorough check of potential Ivory-bill habitat. The Auburn folks claimed a cougar (not extinct, but very rare) sighting during their excursions in the Chocatwhatchee. Throw in botanists, entomologists, mycologists, and other specialties and no telling what'all might be discovered during careful searches of remote IBWO areas given enough resources and expertise. The natural world, even in the U.S., is likely far from fully catalogued.
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-- 'Birder's World' Compendium --

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Birder's World Magazine online offers a nice compendium of their many articles on the Ivory-billed Woodpecker searches over the last few years (2002 - present) here (may require free site registration --- worth it).
Although I knew master birder Pete Dunne believed in the IBWO sightings, and knew his reasons why, I'd forgotten about this particular 2006 article in which he voices his thoughts (though in checking back I reported on it at the time):

http://www.birdersworld.com/brd/default.aspx?c=a&id=1014

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-- Further Aerial Survey Info --

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Cornell has posted more info on their upcoming helicopter survey of the Big Woods here:

http://www.birds.cornell.edu/ivory/latest/aerial08/document_view

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-- O.T. --

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I suspect IBWO news may be slow between now and mid-Feb. (NOT that it will necessarily become faster at that point!) so may fill in with some off-topic posts (O.T.) as needed --- Apologies in advance to those who stop by here ONLY for IBWO news, but will operate on the assumption that any posts are better than silence, which sometimes generates false speculations). So with that said:

Sight unseen, for several months elsewhere on the Web I've promoted Jonathan Rosen's new work and homage to birding, "Life of the Skies," expecting it to be excellent based on some of his previous writing. It is due out mid-Feb. A review on Amazon says, "Jonathan Rosen set out on a quest not merely to see birds but to fathom their centrality—historical and literary, spiritual and scientific—to a culture torn between the desire both to conquer and to conserve." Keep an eye out for it.

And you know birding has hit mainstream when it shows up on NPR's Sunday puzzle with Will Shortz: the basic weekly puzzle as presented today is to take the 13 letters that form the names, "owl," "crane," and "egret," and form 3 different common bird names. Go to it birders, and show NPR how easy this puzzler was....

Finally, just to swing back on topic to finish with, a link back to Sufjan Stevens haunting tribute to the "Lord God Bird," from over 2 years ago, here (mp3 -- originally written for NPR).

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-- Cornell Updates --

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Nothing too noteworthy to report, but Cornell has posted updates from both their Arkansas search team and their Mobile Search Team. The Mobile Team report is here, and mostly recounts time spent in Louisiana's Atchafalaya region. Since finishing there they report, somewhat oddly, moving directly on to Alabama --- no mention made of any stops/searches in Mississippi --- not sure what that's about, unless they will be backtracking to the Pascagoula (which they rated highly last season) from the Alabama side???
The Arkansas search team only reports on 'reassembling' themselves and focusing on "previously unsearched areas" of the Big Woods. Their reports here, and they also mention the helicopter flyovers upcoming next week.
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-- Say What?... --

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In case you haven't glanced at them, just a few of the quotes that are part of the "Just Some Quotes" link in left-hand margin, to take you into the weekend:

"If we will only allow that, as we progress, we remain unsure, we will leave opportunities for alternatives. We will not become enthusiastic for the fact, the knowledge, the absolute truth of the day, but remain always uncertain... In order to make progress, one must leave the door to the unknown ajar." -- Richard Feynman

"It is really quite amazing by what margins competent but conservative scientists and engineers can miss the mark, when they start with the preconceived idea that what they are investigating is impossible. When this happens, the most well-informed men become blinded by their prejudices and are unable to see what lies directly ahead of them."
-- Arthur C. Clarke, 1963

"It's like religion. Heresy [in science] is thought of as a bad thing, whereas it should be just the opposite." -- Dr. Thomas Gold

"You can get into a habit of thought in which you enjoy making fun of all those other people who don't see things as clearly as you do. We have to guard carefully against it." -- Carl Sagan, 1987

"Modern science should indeed arouse in all of us a humility before the immensity of the unexplored and a tolerance for crazy hypotheses." -- Martin Gardner

"I ask you, which is the greater threat to science and mankind, accepting a claim that can have no possible benefit, or rejecting a claim that can have great benefit?" -- Dr. Edmund Storms

"What we need is not the will to believe but the will to find out." -- Bertrand Russell

"If you haven't found something strange during the day, it hasn't been much of a day."
-- J. A. Wheeler

"The secret of genius is to carry the spirit of childhood into maturity." -- T. H. Huxley

"The discovery of truth is prevented more effectively not by the false appearance of things present and which mislead into error, not directly by weakness of the reasoning powers, but by preconceived opinion, by prejudice."
-- Arthur Schopenhauer

"Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits of the world." -- Arthur Schopenhauer

"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." -- Sir Martin Rees (astronomer)

"Advances are made by answering questions. Discoveries are made by questioning answers."
-- Bernhard Haisch, astrophysicist

"...By far the most usual way of handling phenomena so novel that they would make for a serious rearrangement of our preconceptions is to ignore them altogether, or to abuse those who bear witness for them." -- William James

"Everything we know is only some kind of approximation, because we know that we do not know all the laws yet. Therefore, things must be learned only to be unlearned again or, more likely, to be corrected." -- Richard Feynman

"One thing I have learned in a long life: that all our science, measured against reality, is primitive and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we have." -- Einstein

"We do not understand much of anything, from... the "big bang," all the way down to the particles in the atoms of a bacterial cell. We have a wilderness of mystery to make our way through in the centuries ahead." -- Lewis Thomas

"The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds new discoveries, is not 'Eureka!' (I found it!) but 'That's funny...' " -- Isaac Asimov

"The only solid piece of scientific truth about which I feel totally confident is that we are profoundly ignorant about nature... It is this sudden confrontation with the depth and scope of ignorance that represents the most significant contribution of twentieth-century science to the human intellect." -- Lewis Thomas

"Sit down before facts like a child, and be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abysses Nature leads, or you shall learn nothing." -- T.H. Huxley

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."
-- William James
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-- Helicopter Search + addendum --

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Next week searchers with telephoto lenses in-hand plan to commence a 10-day survey of the Cache River Refuge by helicopter in the ongoing search for the Ivory-billed Woodpecker in Arkansas, hoping to scour ~100,000 acres:

http://www.todaysthv.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=59442

There's always been some debate over whether such overflights increase the likelihood of spooking an IBWO out into the open for catching on film, or only cause them to cower more tightly in the safety of the tree canopy... but, there would seem to be little to lose at this point in the effort. Back in 1958, wildlife biologist Herb Stoddard reported sighting an Ivory-bill during a flyover (small plane) of the Altamaha River Basin in Georgia.

Addendum: For the sake of completeness, someone informs me that the helicopter search will include the White River NWR and Wattensaw SWA in addition to the Cache River NWR. Good to know.

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-- Ivory-billed "Boom" Goes "Bust" --

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NY Times article here on how the potential economic boom brought to parts of Arkansas by the the Ivory-billed Woodpecker has, for now, gone bust.

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-- S.C. Volunteer Chimes In --

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One of the South Carolina (Congaree) searchers briefly recounts his initial week involved with the S.C. search here. Nothing momentous to report. Can't be much fun searching or camping in the current frigid cold sweeping across the southeast.

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