Sunday, May 21, 2023

-- This Is The Title Of Yet Another Post -- +ADDENDA

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Apologies in advance for boring you all with a longish post that once again hardly moves the needle forward in this arena….

Most here will recall the pre-print from “Project Principalis” published earlier at bio-Rxiv. Their final version is now published by the open-access journal “Ecology and Evolution” here:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.10017?fbclid=IwAR30JJh1OpjaD3F3okc2VcCpZQY5mzifek1eU8RNUxmu1XEVxYs3RR0S8i0


It is getting widespread press/internet coverage... (while skeptics tear out the remaining strands of their hair...and poor Todd Burtner is wearing his fingers to the nub on Twitter trying to keep up -- inside joke for those who follow things on Twitter).


The timing is interesting, though probably coincidental (since the authors likely couldn’t control it), in so much as we are stiiiiiiiill awaiting an announcement from USFWS regarding de-listing the species — I’ve yet to see an official decision from them… yes, some circles are claiming the decision has already been made NOT to de-list, while a multitude of reports across the internet are claiming USFWS HAS now declared the species extinct (but these all seem based, wrongly, on the original year-and-a-half ago pronouncement). USFWS won’t comment on the new paper, but a spokesperson, Jennifer M. Koches, is quoted as writing that “the agency is still reviewing submitted information, including information from Project Principalis, and has not yet reached a decision.  Yet another report says that government officials will announce a decision “before the end of the year” whatever the Hell that means (I guess it could be next week, or at 11:58 on December 31st)… color me peeved ;)  Anyway, this new paper largely preaches to the IBWO choir, but no doubt also to the procrastinating USFWS (who will get hammered no matter what decision they make).


In the meantime, the Web continues to be filled with folks claiming to have seen Ivory-bills only to, still after all this time, proudly show off their pics of Pileateds (or occasionally other species)… HUGELY annoying on the one hand; on the other hand I realize the Web is also chockfull of press photos of Pileateds LABELLED as Ivorybills so the continued confusion is somewhat understandable/predictable. And when one tries to get these mislabellings corrected, the offenders often act like ‘what’s the big deal, they look about the same anyway’… grrrrrrrr!….

The simplistic gestalt similarity between the IBWO and PIWO continues to make it difficult to ever take the (usually) undetailed claims from non-experienced birders very seriously.


Anyway, on to the paper at hand. First, “Ecology and Evolution” is an open-access journal, but comes from highly-reputable Wiley publishers, and does include reasonably strong peer-review — all the checking I did came back with positive accolades for this particular journal. I dare say we likely won’t know who the reviewers of this paper were or what they had to say. Will also venture that the authors had little choice but to go the open-access route since probably NO traditional journal will accept anything of this nature on the IBWO topic, which is largely (and unfortunately) toxic at this point!


The ‘new’ paper is mostly a rerun of the original pre-print with some things fleshed out further and a few new bits added. No (entrenched) minds will be changed here (at least I don’t think so), so I won’t attempt to do that, but will reiterate my own belief that this work is the best evidence currently available of all the evidence touted over recent years. With that said, I fully understand how frustrating it is to skeptics that, after all this time, stiiiiiiiill not a single, clear, indisputable photograph of the species is offered — a bird that must forage and use cavities every single day of its life, cannot be simply photo-captured at such a daily-use site, even once in decades (any photo/video that must be analyzed or explained or discussed is NOT clearcut). Similarly, most sightings are brief and of the bird in flight, where a multitude of both psychological and physical variables muddy the situation. Frustrating, barely covers it.  (The authors attempt explanations for the incessant difficulty of documenting the species, but such explanations will not satisfy skeptics -- personally, I continue to presume this species may live the bulk of its life in the upper canopy, at least 40-50 ft. or more up, in order to explain its elusivity to both humans and remote cameras; in fact I'm sometimes all the more skeptical of cavities, foraging sign, or sightings below that level). 


Per usual, I don't find the auditory evidence, by itself, persuasive, but it is certainly valuable to have in conjunction with the Latta-group sightings that are detailed more here than in the past — again, those sightings won’t mean a lot to critics (who have already been dismissive in most quarters), but, while technically weak, some are vital to have in conjunction with the auditory/photographic evidence offered.  My major concern about all brief visual encounters continues to be the possibility of leucistic Pileateds (or even crows, etc.) that by sheer chance might mimic the visual patterns of an Ivory-billed Woodpecker — to those who say, “Ohh, c’mon what are the chances of a leucistic PIWO actually matching the appearance of an IBWO!?” I would say yes, THAT is my point — it would be a very rare and unusual occurrence!… exactly as are Ivory-billed sightings….

HERE, by the way, is a recent shot of a nearly fully-leucistic PIWO from the Web:

https://twitter.com/CarolMurchie/status/1659304763643633666


Again, what one must wonder is, what did this bird’s parents look like, its siblings, its offspring, its grand-offspring, 'nieces/nephews'…?


The Latta-team drone and trail-cam photos/video are certainly also vital…. but also open to varied interpretation, though I have to scratch my head at some of the arguments skeptics put forth. The well-known drone video of a flying bird continues to impress me as hard-to-interpret as anything other than an Ivory-billed Woodpecker (though oddly, Mike Collins does argue the bird is a normal Pileated; not sure anyone takes him seriously on this!?)

BTW, it should be said that ALL the visual evidence (photos/video) is best looked at on as large a computer screen as available (anyone viewing this stuff on a smartphone, will of course come away thinking it’s junk — smartphones are NOT a device for looking at most visual evidentiary material!). 


The overall tone of the paper is clearly optimistic, but with an appropriate cautious tinge, recognizing the evidence offered is not complete proof or certainty. As the title suggests, what the paper does, is offer "multiple lines of evidence" from multiple people over multiple years with multiple analyses, for the existence of this species (i.e., it is not heavily dependent on any one piece of evidence). Critics will argue that no matter how many pieces of weak, ambiguous evidence you string together, it is still weak, ambiguous evidence -- even if one believed that (I don't necessarily) there is enough 'reasonable doubt' (of extinction) to delay any de-listing of this species.

The authors also recognize that other sites around the southeast, besides their Louisiana locale, offer similarly-suitable, remote habitat for Ivory-billed Woodpeckers, and deserve similar attention (and protection), which they have not received (again, despite what skeptics try to assert). 


In response to the paper I’ve seen mostly dismissiveness or even ridicule from skeptical sorts (many of whom have neither carefully read the paper, nor kept up with all the other work and claims over the last decade (much of which I agree is junky, but some of which is not — and THAT is the fallacy involved, summarily throwing out all the evidence if say 90% of it is crappy). In short, bias and ‘groupthink’ is easily as prevalent among skeptics as amongst ‘believers.’


Unfortunately though, the longer and longer and longer we go without searchers producing an adequate, agreed-upon photo, the more ridiculous IBWO-believers look.... skeptics believe they've had the last laugh; some of us think the last laugh is yet to come! No matter how this saga eventually ends there ought be material here for cognitive psychology dissertations of the future!


On a side-note here is a decent, lengthy talk from last year (to an Audubon chapter) by John Trochet, a member of the Latta-group team:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4F-PfPQwfYg&t=8s

…and coming up the evening of June 1, for anyone interested, is a Zoom talk (free, but need pre-registration) from Stephen Lyn Bales, author/chronicler of James Tanner’s work:

https://www.oakridger.com/story/lifestyle/nature-wildlife/2023/05/18/is-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker-extinct-explore-the-claims-june-1/70223277007/

…I’ve rattled on long enough, so will just stop here and add Addendums later if I decide of more I want to mention.... but will end on a lighter (non-IBWO) note, with what may be my favorite tweet of all time ;)

https://twitter.com/wildbirdfund/status/1658637281773727745


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ADDENDUM 5/25:


Nothing to do with the Latta etc. data but a nice new article on long-time Ivory-bill searcher Bobby Harrison here:

https://gardenandgun.com/feature/chasing-the-ivory-billed-woodpecker/


(...and good to see that all the illustrations in it actually accurately depict an Ivory-billed Woodpecker and NOT a Pileated Woodpecker as shown in several of the articles on the Latta paper currently making the rounds)


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ADDENDUM2  5/26:


Those following this story know it has received widespread press coverage, some of it so-so, and some of it pretty horrible, including mislabelled photos as previously referenced. I've now come across one YouTube video from a biologist named Dillon Jones that seems reasonably good (though I fast-forwarded through parts, so don’t want to judge too fully). It’s a bit drawn out at over 50 mins., but thusly more detailed than most coverage that’s out there:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCDjUctbHpY


…and if you wish to squander time on a shorter, crappier effort (really quite atrocious) you can sit through this recent waste of time (not related to the Latta paper, but to an IBWO claim):


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_31hw6Ery3k


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ADDENDUM3  5/27:


Here's a nice slowed-down zoom posted by Dwight Norris on FB of a clip from the Latta paper showing 2 possible IBWOs from their study area (this is isolated from the longer clip that includes a likely Red-headed Woodpecker earlier on):


https://www.facebook.com/100000086782831/videos/922814598995125/


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ADDENDUM4  5/27:


Re: leucism

Decades ago, excellent birder Noel Snyder [sorry, just realized I left out Noel's name when originally posted, duhh] reported a leucistic Pileated (I believe in Florida, without re-looking it up) which upon brief glance looked like an IBWO (he got no photograph), and now a Twitterer sends me this more recent great example from Kentucky of such a bird:




https://www.facebook.com/groups/1862303084018972/permalink/3315148768734389/?

I’ll again stress that leucism can be found in crows, ravens, anhingas and other waterbirds, and perhaps other species that might mimic the IBWO size and “saddle.”  While this is a concern of mine for brief flying reports of IBWOs, I want to stress that the drone clips from Latta’s group in flight and landing characteristics seem clearly to show woodpeckers, and to my satisfaction, large woodpeckers, which gets us immediately down to just 2 possibilities.


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ADDENDUM5  6/3:


Probably the last Addendum for this post (enough is enough!)…


Folks keep sending me links to pieces I’m mostly familiar with, but don’t link to because they’re either too redundant/repetitive, too speculative, or sometimes just horribly written or presented (I largely avoid certain forums, like Reddit, so always possible I’ll miss something of value there). 

Wide press coverage of the Latta publication has clearly led to another major uptick in IBWO interest and articles (the main IBWO Facebook group also gaining many new followers) — a sort of 2-edged sword: nice to see increased public interest in the species, but also means a big spike in claims that make little sense and pictures that are clearly of other mistaken species (usually from sincere, but misguided folks). In short, the results of such interest only hurt the credibility of all ‘believers’ when soooo many additional claims come forward that are plainly, as they used to say on “Car Talk”, “Bbbbbbogus!.” Too often, 'believers' are shooting themselves in the foot, not even realizing their finger is on the trigger! The road ahead, as far as public (or professional) opinion is concerned is increasingly steep and uphill, as patience runs thinner and thinner, and false claims predominate. Oy.


I say all that simply to caution against any anticipation of some discovery just around the corner… experts like Jerry Jackson, Paul Sykes, Steve Holzman, et.al. tended to turn more negative over the decades because of the sheer number of ‘corners’ that have already been turned without success (…and I write that as someone who continues to believe the IBWO exists in at least 3 states, but who has lost confidence in human ability to find, let alone, document, such a remote and low-density denizen) — not that it won’t happen one day (short of finding a nest or roost-hole, automated remote cameras on a foraging site remain the best hope), but just that it’s hard to take seriously claims that it will happen soon. Yet on we trudge…




Friday, May 19, 2023

— Timeout —

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just a place-holder of sorts… for those inquiring, I'm working on a post, maybe up on Sun., Mon., or Tues…. waiting to hear back on a couple of things from a few folks, but mainly just deciding how much I even want to write on current “news.”

Meanwhile, one small housekeeping measure: discovered some time ago a few emails in a long-abandoned email account, so please be sure that if you email me you have on file the gmail acct. I’ve used for well over a dozen years (and not some older acct. I rarely check)!:

cyberthrush@gmail.com

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Sunday, April 30, 2023

-- Into May --

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First, I remain flabbergasted that USFWS has not published a statement (so far as I’m aware) regarding the status of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker, seemingly well-beyond the statutory deadline for them to do so. :( Something seems amiss, as the species appears to linger, from their standpoint, Schrodinger’s cat-like, half alive, half dead...

Big spike in blog traffic last 2 days -- happens sometimes about once-a-month and I often have no idea why, but this time I suspect may be related to USFWS decision.


Matt Courtman will have another free IBWO Zoom meeting this coming Monday, May 1, 8:00pm EDT (tomorrow):

https://www.facebook.com/events/716321880238113/?ref=newsfeed


Otherwise, sorry to say, I’ve seen nothing, either on the Web nor in private email, that I deem very hopeful about documentation in coming months; lot of chatter and misplaced optimism, but nothing solid; indeed much of social media is simply discouraging and exasperating at this point! Also exasperating that yet another winter  (when foliage is off the trees) has passed without good photo documentation of the species (I never have much hope in summertime). The Brits would say (scoff) that the IBWO-world is being strung along with no genuine end in sight, just incessant exaggerated promises that don't materialize.


On a complete side-note, I recently stumbled upon this memorial (I was unaware of) to Bill Pulliam, who I've mentioned here countless times before, and many/most? of you know of for his countless contributions to the Ivory-bill saga (but who died young at 56):

https://swantrust.org/bill-pulliam-memorial/


...just passing along in case you care to contribute.


Maybe more news soon... but getting hard to predict.


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Wednesday, April 19, 2023

— Perhaps Of Interest (...while WAAAAITING on USFWS) —

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Will post this in case of interest to anyone:

Kate Sutherland will be speaking to a North Carolina bird club this coming Monday evening (April 24, 7:15pm) about The Fabled Cahow: Saving a Lazarus Species from Extinction” — the Cahow (a seabird, the Bermuda Petrel) was thought extinct for over 300 years before being re-discovered:

https://www.meetup.com/New-Hope-Audubon-Society/events/292750277/

This will be a Zoom meeting you can register for in advance (instructions at bottom of above page).


I wouldn’t expect the talk to have too much pertinence to the IBWO situation, other than to be interesting in its own right, and perhaps inspiring:

"Kate Sutherland will share the remarkable story of how a handful of dedicated individuals pulled the Cahow back from the brink of extinction and have turned the species into a conservation success story like no other."


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Wednesday, April 12, 2023

-- Twiddling Thumbs --

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Am patiently waiting for the USFWS to make their official announcement (already have a post written but waiting ’til I can include a link in it to their public statement).


In the meantime, for your reading entertainment I’ll just once again pass along Nobelist Richard Feynman’s classic, oft-cited “Cargo Cult Science” commencement address from almost 50 years ago:


http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.pdf

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ADDENDUM: (while awaiting a different release)


...not sure how I missed this bit of USFWS April 1st amusement, but will pass it along now:  (someone in their social media unit has been running 'humor' posts for awhile at this point) Correction: I see someone over on Facebook is now claiming that he was responsible for this bit of mockery, and it was NOT actually done by the hand of USFWS! ]





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ADDENDUM2:  (4/14)


A number of IBWO-related articles have come out recently and for the most part I’m avoiding the ones (almost all of them) that are basically retrospective or historical pieces — stuff that can be regurgitated over-and-over ad infinitum. I’ll make an exception though for these two new ones that I do feel hit upon some important material. The second one, from David Martin, is an especially lengthy/detailed essay including several of the same themes as the first one.

We’re reaching the end of yet another week waiting for USFWS to come off its duff and say something publicly. ;)  Sooooo, in meantime, some weekend reading:


https://tinyurl.com/muhbtnw2


https://tinyurl.com/y3f4yfep




Tuesday, March 21, 2023

-- A Two-fer??? --

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After dragging on and on and on, it's an odd feeling to be awaiting, in the very same week, both a de-listing decision from a Government agency, and an indictment from a grand jury. 😳


3/30/23:  So we finally have a grand jury decision out of NY late today... can't help but think just maybe that means there will be an announcement from USFWS tomorrow! (last day of the month). IF the USFWS actually slides on into April with no decision I can only read that as an indication of disagreement (infighting???) and lack of consensus for now on their part (...just my take).


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Thursday, March 02, 2023

— Drumroll….? —

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Most believe the USFWS will announce its decision regarding de-listing of a certain somewhat-interesting avian species this month ;)))


I suspect (with low confidence) it will choose to de-list, while still possible it might again put the decision off (choosing NOT to de-list, but to re-visit the issue a year from now). The Agency is no doubt under great pressure from many birders, conservationists, scientists, etc. to declare the Ivory-bill extinct (for too many reasons to delineate). But the smaller group of passionate and vocal “believers” have also successfully applied pressure on the decision-to-be. I’m not aware of any new significant evidence that USFWS has seen since the last batch of asked-for and publicly-presented evidence… and none of that evidence, unfortunately, truly met the especially high bar of clarity and consensus that USFWS was asking for. So if it’s a matter of sticking to their own criteria as well as bowing to pressure of a majority, again, I suspect they’ll de-list. BUUUUT, if (as could well be the case) they are concerned about potential egg-on-their-face from this decision, they may realize they risk suffering far more embarrassment (and having their competency questioned) by declaring the species extinct only to be documented later, than by delaying de-listing even if no conclusive evidence arises in the next couple of years.


I wish I knew more about the actual process of the decision: i.e. in short, how many folks are in on the decision, and must the vote be unanimous or simple majority rule (that alone making a huge difference in the potential outcome).

Ohh well, soon we’ll all know… and searches and discussion (...and hope) will continue no matter what the headline from USFWS is.


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Friday, February 17, 2023

-- Biding Time... Again --

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Hahh, maybe I should just turn this blog over to Chuck Hunter, LOL… will defer to him yet again, linking to some comments he has made over on Facebook (responding to comments by others). And again this is largely historical stuff, but still worth a gander for many: 


https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193741170647261&reply_comment_id=6193868403967871


https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193741170647261&reply_comment_id=6194670313887680


https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193741170647261&reply_comment_id=6194464203908291


https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/posts/6190924554262256/?comment_id=6193591377328907


And as long as we're again going back in time I’ll note that Dwight Norris recently drew attention to a new-ish computerized video system for photographing/IDing bird species in flight:


https://www.identiflight.com/about-us-2


It’s called “Identiflight” and appears to be an update or evolution (different people though I think involved???) of a system called ACONE which was tried in the Arkansas Big Woods 15+ years ago. I had high hopes for it at the time it was first announced, but in the end it was unsuccessful, and indeed seemed to be out-of-commission due to issues, more than it was in operation! :(( No doubt great advancements have been made since then, but even so, as a practical matter rather doubt the new system can or will be employed for current IBWO searches.


Currently unsure if I'll have any other posts for February...?


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Tuesday, January 24, 2023

-- Another Tool -- ...+Addenda

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Quick note:


Dwight Norris on FB points out this 3+ year-old Nature article on the use of eDNA (environmental DNA left behind by species) for locating rare animals:


https://tinyurl.com/2gcdwjce


I believe this is (or has been) used minimally, and unsuccessfully thus far, in searches for IBWO. In any event I suspect it would more likely be a tool for helping confirm the presence of IBWO in a given locale after they have been seen or heard, rather than a tool for finding Ivory-bills in the first place.

A bit of the cautionary note from the piece:


“…the technique is yet to convince some scientists, who say eDNA results aren’t robust enough to be used as the sole basis for making environment-management decisions that can have legal implications for governments and land owners.

“Early studies that used eDNA to pinpoint specific species were criticized because of the potential for improper handling of samples to cause cross-contamination, leading to false-positive results. Scientists using the method are detecting only trace amounts of genetic material, so even minute amounts of contamination from gloves or equipment can taint the results. But proponents of the field say that the recent adoption of rigorous protocols that avoid or detect contamination have largely addressed such issues.”

Chances are by now, fairly 'rigorous protocols' are indeed in place, though there could still be problems of interpretation. I don't know to what degree cost may be a limiting factor in how extensively eDNA is employed? In any event, from my very limited reading the technique has been less successful or used with birds than other animal forms... mammals have even been detected from short-term DNA in air (though this article is inspired by use for a bird).

Here is a Wikipedia article on the subject:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_DNA

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ADDENDUM:

Am trying to keep articles not directly pertaining to IBWOs to a minimum here, but this is such a nice story (from Dwight N. again), that I’ll it pass along… about a rehabbed Pileated Woodpecker maintained in a Michigan zoo:


https://www.grmag.com/museums-attractions/zoo-introduces-norman-the-pileated-woodpecker/?fbclid=IwAR3GI-avX7CZDPBicNIounDw9Ebc2g4rt34HqDRe0PP6mZ3vwllphM4Z2r0


I’ve never given much hope to any notion of possible captive breeding for IBWOs (as done with some other endangered avian species), but this piece is at least interesting. I do wish they said more about the actual habitat and daily routine of this bird, and it will be interesting to see what it’s longevity in captivity is.

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ADDENDUM2  1/29:


A couple more longish postings by Chuck Hunter over on Facebook worth a gander:


https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011


https://www.facebook.com/groups/ivorybillnews/posts/1528420804344451/?comment_id=1529215204265011&reply_comment_id=1529221810931017


Sorry for any redundancy of linking to Chuck yet again, but so many of the knowledgeable, thoughtful, objective sources I used to rely on years ago have passed from this arena that he is one of the few left whose views I’m willing to pass along as trustworthy. These posts are mostly historical info, and I always caution about the difficulty of knowing how reliable/valid/relevant such information (based on a small sample of IBWOs) really is for any limited, remnant population still around almost 100 years later, but certainly food for thought.


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ADDENDUM3  1/31:


NPR with a current audio report on the IBWO story (mostly rehash of where we're at):

https://www.kuaf.com/show/ozarks-at-large/2023-01-30/federal-extinction-declaration-decision-for-ivory-billed-woodpeckers-imminent


...the USFWS decision is likely still a couple months away, so don't read too much into the word "imminent" in the story title.


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ADDENDUM4  1/31:


Apologies for all the addenda, but am waiting for more significant news to start a new post.  The below again is recent history, old news for all well familiar with it, but definitely of interest for the many new folks entering the IBWO arena. Hat tip once again to Dwight Norris (Facebook) for referencing it, as it comes from one of the most respected, long-term IBWO searchers out there, Paul Sykes (who’s been at this for decades since the 1960s), a nice summary of his searching:


https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2039&context=usgsstaffpub&fbclid=IwAR1EUsR6ZoTTFaXJkBAOdiHTy17IWw-2omII45B8jATlAQp4LbpiIJ_9hVs


His efforts are of interest in themselves, and his conclusions are important as well, because of his experience and contacts over time. Additionally, years ago he and Steve Holzman spent significant time attempting to deduce the diagnostic features of IBWO scraping and bark scaling (as have many others) only to conclude in the end that we simply don’t know definitively how to separate IBWO work from other work… indeed, if we did, we would surely by now have a clear photo of an Ivory-bill from an automatic camera focused on such work — I’ve long argued that the failure of remote automatic cameras to capture an IBWO (rather than the failure of humans to observe them) is the single most damning evidence against IBWO survival in any given area.

By now, Steve is largely skeptical and pessimistic about IBWO survival… and he’s earned the right to that conclusion from the multifold efforts he put in. With that said, I'm sure no one would be any more excited/ecstatic were definitive proof of the bird's existence to now arise.


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ADDENDUM5 2/4:


Matt Courtman’s next monthly IBWO Zoom meeting is this Monday evening (2/6), again at 8pm EST., details here (free to join):

https://www.facebook.com/events/570295411419641/?ref=newsfeed


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ADDENDUM6  2/5:


Dwight N. has posted five more lengthy entries from Chuck Hunter on Facebook (actually the last one, #5, is an old posting from Bill Pulliam making the same point about IBWO density that Chris Haney emphasizes and makes well more recently in his volume “Woody’s Last Laugh”). 

The posts are mostly of a historical nature or commentary (much of it about ‘signs’ of IBWOs, i.e. sounds, dks, kents, flight patterns, behavior etc., but also, in #4, some reference to more recent history since 2005); certainly worth reading for those unfamiliar with much of it. I think #3, with the Reynard information, is the most interesting of the bunch:


#1 https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156630967691615/


#2  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156644977690214/


#3  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156661604355218/


#4  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156674251020620/


#5  https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6156682907686421/


The historical information is great and (with caution) instructive, but what I'm still hopeful for within the next say 5 weeks is perhaps some more and better publicly-released evidence....



Saturday, January 14, 2023

-- 2023 Underway --

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Many of us believe that the drone footage shared by Project Principalis awhile back (with USFWS) is the best recent evidence of an extant Ivory-billed Woodpecker to emerge recently. Chuck Hunter (one of the foremost experts on IBWOs, retired from USFWS) has now given his analysis of it on a Facebook group, and it is worth reading. It coincides closely with my own view of that footage. I'm less confident of some of his points (and he is appropriately cautious), but am in accord with the basic conclusion that the bird seems to be either an IBWO or some sort of leucistic PIWO — I expressed that view quite awhile back here on the blog, and also did so recently in private communication with another individual.  Some will likely continue to try to argue the bird may be a Red-headed Woodpecker or possibly even a non-woodpecker species, all of which seem eliminated in my view.


https://www.facebook.com/groups/179784035376368/permalink/6088471191174260/


The post includes one of the enhanced/zoomed versions of the drone footage for viewing.  Even in this form it is, as seems agonizingly always the case, difficult to feel completely certain about several details when so many variables are in play. Also, be sure to read Chuck's lengthy comment to his own post-comment -- it gets quite into the weeds of the old arguments that used to be more commonplace in this arena, and I would almost say have faded away since Bill Pulliam passed (like myself, Chuck gives Bill a lot of credit for earlier work done in this debate). He also mentions Louis Bevier who was a prestigious and active skeptic at the time, but who, for reasons I won't get into, left the whole debate and is unlikely to comment on any new evidence or information (not sure if he even follows it any longer).


...In other news, if you're not already aware of it, Matt Courtman holds another Monday evening Zoom meeting (free) this Monday at 8pm EST. He has also posted an update of his current search in the Tensas area. You can visit his Mission Ivorybill page for more details:

https://www.facebook.com/MissionIvorybill

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ADDENDUM  1/18/23


Handful of folks are dropping me notes/links lately about various matters that I’m already familiar with… most of which I won't spend time addressing, unless more precision, detail, consistency, credibility, accuracy, reliability, transparency, and rigor is added to the issues involved, and major problems relieved. Am glad to see Chuck Hunter weigh in elsewhere (maybe futilely ;) to add some sanity to a few of the matters (he has more patience than I do!). ...And I’ll simply add that people ought understand how eBird works/functions before making nonsensical/embarrassing submissions there. Shooting oneself in the foot is not usually a good look.

As we approach the time USFWS will make a determination I hope we don't enter an utter clownshow stage...



Wednesday, January 04, 2023

— Biding Time Again —

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New year, so feel like I oughta post something!... Several damp, gray, cold days had me stuck inside at the computer recently, just looking at or playing around with a few numbers. I may be way off on some of these, so feel free to correct if you have more updated or accurate information...

As best I could roughly estimate (from online sources):


National Audubon Society has ~600,000 members (I assume most of those are North American, but don’t really know the breakdown)


American Birding Association (ABA) membership is around 20,000 (again don’t know the breakdown worldwide), although this figure seemed oddly low to me??? (so someone got a better figure?)


Cornell Lab of Ornithology  ~75,000 members


worldwide estimate for those on eBird: 200,000, probably with at least a quarter of those North American?


…again, all verrrry rough figures, so feel free to correct... but anyway, needless to say, a lot of folks interested to varying degrees in birds.


Finally, on social media there are well over 6000 folks following sites devoted to the Ivory-billed Woodpecker; though not necessarily all are IBWO enthusiasts.  Some of those would be full-fledged skeptics who only follow along to monitor what is being stated (or misstated) on such sites; and some are folks who think the species is most likely extinct, but still hold out some slim hope. Others are simply interested in cryptids in general, so include IBWO among their follows. The remainder, maybe perhaps 4000, could be “true believers” or so-called “IBWO-truthers” who think (or even feel certain) that the species exists. Worth noting though that most of those 4000-or-so are almost certainly NOT serious or long-time, experienced birders (some are, but not most)… as indicated if one follows much of the serious birding community on a site like Twitter or a birding forum the derision for IBWO-belief remains pretty broad-based and growing. The treatment of Matt Courtman by his own Louisiana active-birding community is another indication, as is the treatment, for that matter, of almost any claimant by the wider birding community (…that treatment being anything from shunning to snickering at, and a whole lot of eye-rolling). In large part both the 'believer' and 'skeptic' communities reside now in their own self-contained, self-reinforcing bubbles.


So once again, unless new, significant evidence is introduced (and, that could happen!…) the USFWS bureaucracy will soon be weighing the voices of a small, highly vocal group versus an increasingly impatient throng of knowledgeable birders and conservationists… and making a decision… a decision that will have no bearing whatsoever on whether the IBWO actually exists, but could have bearing on the perceptions of any few remaining who are still neutral on the subject... while no doubt also spurring further contentious debate over the "evidence" that already exists (such as it is). It would be great to be a fly on the wall at the USFWS proceedings/discussions. I have no idea how many folks are in on those talks, nor whether their final decision must be unanimous or simply majority-rule. Meanwhile, IF an IBWO nestsite is to be found we are approaching the time of year it ought happen (...as I've probably said for 16 years in a row now ;)


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ADDENDUM  1/7:


Just a quick note, since Dwight Norris on Facebook just posted this nice clip of a Pileated at work:


https://youtube.com/shorts/6N0dxqfxLMU?feature=share


I used to get pics sent to me, with some regularity, of trees with multiple large woodpecker holes, but just so folks know, this is completely typical for PIWO and not at all typical of IBWO. Examples from the Web:







(in 15 years, I’ve probably had less than 5 pics sent to me that I thought were even possible IBWO cavities... foraging/bark-scaling work is a little more interesting, though also hugely difficult to interpret from photos... and automatic cameras focused on putative foraging work has never captured a clear IBWO).


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